So, dear investors, there is not much time left until the end of this year, and we are coming close to completing another global four-year cycle of bitcoin related to halving, which we started writing about in our first articles a few years ago.
Over these two years, almost all the drivers that long–term and medium—term BTC holders were counting on – halving 2020, the entry of institutions represented by Bakkt, Figelity, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) and others, and finally, the launch of the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF – ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE:BITO), which started trading on the NYSE yesterday.
By the way, in the first 20 minutes, the trading volume of this instrument amounted to $280 million, which placed it in the TOP 15 of the opening day in history. Apparently, we weren’t the only ones waiting for him.
Of course, the bullish rally that was launched due to the events described above is very likely to continue until the end of 2021.
Today, the MVRV onchain indicator, which calculates the ratio of the market and realized value of BTC, and its derivatives indicate the likelihood that the bitcoin exchange rate may head to new historical highs. In the current cycle, the maximum MVRV is very similar to the situation in 2017.
Rather, history will repeat itself, and we will again see rising highs for MVRV and BTC until the end of 2021. The bitcoin dominance index is also located near the local resistance at ~48, overcoming which will open the way to ~60 – stopping there will, in turn, allow the top altos to win back.
The launch of an ETF will also not go unnoticed by large investment houses, which can now recruit bitcoin into the portfolios of their tens and hundreds of thousands of clients, especially since the demand from the latter is growing every day.
Therefore, bitcoin at $125-150K (see charts) is quite a real goal by the end of the year. Naturally, it will not do without local corrections — everything is as usual here — the most greedy are “planted” and the brave are rewarded.
A rosy picture, isn’t it?) If not for one thing. This is the fact from which this view began — the big four—year BTC cycle is coming to its final stage – this is the stage of possible parabolic growth. And, as you and I already know, any euphoria entails an inevitable deep correction. And the more vertical the upward movement was, the harder and deeper the rollback will be.
Therefore, as a result, we expect a positive end to 2021 for BTC and top altos, and we begin to be very cautious at the beginning of 2022. After all, history repeats itself, and in the case of BTC, this has been repeated more than once or twice. Stay tuned, and remember that there are no guarantees in the financial markets, there are only probabilities and competent risk management. Successful bidding!